Abstract Title

In Deutsche Bank Research – the independent think tank of Deutsche Bank Group – a group of analysts is delivering foresight for the company's decision-makers, the clients of Deutsche Bank Group, and the interested public. Since a bank's business is assessing, transforming and taking on risk, one of the main tasks of Deutsche Bank Research ́s Macro Trends team is to quantitatively and qualitatively analyze those trends in society, politics, business, and technology that have and will shape future growth. As achieving impact with foresight on business decision makers who are used to forecasts, is not an easy task, it seems to be inevitable, judged on the basis of the experience in Deutsche Bank Research, to thoroughly structure both the content and the process of foresight exercises. If foresight people in business organisations want to have an impact with their foresight exercises on business, they should keep some criteria in mind. They should aim at producing plausibility, providing convenience and inspiration as well as an appropriate temporal perspective with regard to the content of foresight results. In addition, a structured way of producing and delivering foresight, a seamless inclusion in organisational procedures, a high level of interaction with decision makers, ideational entrepreneurship, innovation as regards to communication with business people, persistence, and a synchronization with the business organisation are the key criteria for achieving a higher impact with foresight results. To live up to these criteria, the Macro trends team has developed a “trend map” to provide orientation for decision makers and stakeholders. As experience shows, this conceptual aggregation of trends, and the usage of conceptual tools in general, seem paramount for leveraging the plausibility and the embedding of foresight into corporate decisions. This mapping of trends has the potential to deliver pictures of the future, frames of perception for decisionmakers, supporting them in their assessment of business opportunities and threats. If there is enough interaction of foresight people and decision makers, foresight may form the basis for discussions of future developments and the challenges brought with them in the organisation, which is the most important impact that foresight work can have.